I don’t buy into
superstition. If I can’t make sense of
it via my senses I remain skeptical at best. This means I don’t accept
astrology as valid but I accept that individuals can learn to predict the
future. Predicting the future is not
astrology. No individual can predict
what will happen to another individual a day, a year or ten years from now
(with some medical and financial exceptions) but we can predict what will
happen to groups of individuals, nations and the world in general with
outstanding accuracy. If you accept
global warming predictions for example you’ve accepted the science of
prediction.
How is it possible to predict the
future? A branch of social science
(futurism) exists around the practice. Futurists
John Nesbitt, Alvin Toffler, Aldous Huxley, Buckminster Fuller, Carl Sagan,
Darla Jane Gilroy, Isaac Asimov and many others have made predictions including
about the 21st century that are close to 100% accurate.
In an essay he wrote 50 years ago “Visit to
the World’s Fair of 2014” Asimov made some incredibly accurate predictions. He predicted the world’s population would
reach 7 billion and the U.S.’s 350 million.
He saw the use of robotics in the home, self-driving cars, video calling,
wide-spread use of nuclear power and technology’s impact on every aspect of our
lives. He saw an increase in leisure
time and the boredom that would result. He
predicted moving sidewalks like we use today at airports. The list goes on from his predictions of
solar power to the growth of processed food consumption.
Perhaps
the most famous futurist was Nostradamus.
Biographers, commentators and critics have incorrectly labeled
Nostradamus an astrologer. Nostradamus
himself used the label but for convenience.
The 99 percenters of the 16th century wouldn’t have
understood much less appreciated from where his abilities stemmed. Nostradamus possessed what less than one percent
of the population possessed at the time.
He possessed what less than half of the world’s population possesses
today. Nostradamus owned
information/knowledge but not just any knowledge.
In
the 16th century the literacy rate was less than one percent. This is an amazing statistic. Literacy gave the one percenters great
power. Nostradamus studied at the universities
of Avignon and Montpellier. At the
latter he studied medicine. There he
learned what few of what even the literate of the time knew. He studied science and medicine and he
combined his understanding of the natural and anatomical world with mastery of
several languages. This helped him
understand much of the world around him.
Add to that the key ingredient in predicting the future. He studied the past. He had the same power that religious leaders
used to control the masses. He knew
history. Imagine the power individuals
who knew what had happened 100, 200, 1000 years before their time could wield
over the masses who didn’t even know what had happened in their village the day
before? It may seem like a paradox or
counter intuitive but to predict the future we must study the past.
From a careful study
of history we learn that as a group we don’t learn from history despite its
importance. Science and technology can’t
immunize us from the mistakes we will repeat.
Not all groups around the world value freedom. All cultures desire power whether wielded by
a despot or by a benevolent leader and they desire tribalism as well. Americans will witness the same destiny
citizens of other failed democracies and republics witnessed. Nothing motivates
groups more than religion and a lust for power.
Nations and empires rise and fall not because of anonymous government
social and economic forces but because of decisions individuals make. Nostradamus got a lot wrong in his
predictions on the micro level but on the macro level his predictions come
close to 100% accurate.
This
understanding/mastery of the past plus knowledge of more than one language,
cultures, geography, probability, data analytics, human behavior and
neuroscience are the tools of prediction.
With these tools we can accurately predict the rise and fall of
civilizations, the fluctuation of stock values, the climate, the future of race
relations and much more but sorry not the winning numbers in lotto nor when or
where we will meet that dark, attractive stranger.
As
we enter the age of information manipulation it will pay high dividends to not
just have information but to also know how to analyze and synthesize it to make
intelligent decisions and predictions about our own lives.
Copyright
Bert Lorenzo, 2015
