Tuesday, February 17, 2015

How to Predict the Future by Professor Bert Lorenzo




     I don’t buy into superstition.  If I can’t make sense of it via my senses I remain skeptical at best. This means I don’t accept astrology as valid but I accept that individuals can learn to predict the future.  Predicting the future is not astrology.  No individual can predict what will happen to another individual a day, a year or ten years from now (with some medical and financial exceptions) but we can predict what will happen to groups of individuals, nations and the world in general with outstanding accuracy.  If you accept global warming predictions for example you’ve accepted the science of prediction.  
                                                         
How is it possible to predict the future?  A branch of social science (futurism) exists around the practice.  Futurists John Nesbitt, Alvin Toffler, Aldous Huxley, Buckminster Fuller, Carl Sagan, Darla Jane Gilroy, Isaac Asimov and many others have made predictions including about the 21st century that are close to 100% accurate.                                                    

In an essay he wrote 50 years ago “Visit to the World’s Fair of 2014” Asimov made some incredibly accurate predictions.  He predicted the world’s population would reach 7 billion and the U.S.’s 350 million.  He saw the use of robotics in the home, self-driving cars, video calling, wide-spread use of nuclear power and technology’s impact on every aspect of our lives.  He saw an increase in leisure time and the boredom that would result.  He predicted moving sidewalks like we use today at airports.  The list goes on from his predictions of solar power to the growth of processed food consumption.                          

Perhaps the most famous futurist was Nostradamus.  Biographers, commentators and critics have incorrectly labeled Nostradamus an astrologer.  Nostradamus himself used the label but for convenience.  The 99 percenters of the 16th century wouldn’t have understood much less appreciated from where his abilities stemmed.  Nostradamus possessed what less than one percent of the population possessed at the time.  He possessed what less than half of the world’s population possesses today.  Nostradamus owned information/knowledge but not just any knowledge.                                                              
In the 16th century the literacy rate was less than one percent.  This is an amazing statistic.  Literacy gave the one percenters great power.  Nostradamus studied at the universities of Avignon and Montpellier.  At the latter he studied medicine.  There he learned what few of what even the literate of the time knew.  He studied science and medicine and he combined his understanding of the natural and anatomical world with mastery of several languages.  This helped him understand much of the world around him.  Add to that the key ingredient in predicting the future.  He studied the past.  He had the same power that religious leaders used to control the masses.  He knew history.  Imagine the power individuals who knew what had happened 100, 200, 1000 years before their time could wield over the masses who didn’t even know what had happened in their village the day before?  It may seem like a paradox or counter intuitive but to predict the future we must study the past.                           

From a careful study of history we learn that as a group we don’t learn from history despite its importance.  Science and technology can’t immunize us from the mistakes we will repeat.  Not all groups around the world value freedom.  All cultures desire power whether wielded by a despot or by a benevolent leader and they desire tribalism as well.  Americans will witness the same destiny citizens of other failed democracies and republics witnessed. Nothing motivates groups more than religion and a lust for power.  Nations and empires rise and fall not because of anonymous government social and economic forces but because of decisions individuals make.   Nostradamus got a lot wrong in his predictions on the micro level but on the macro level his predictions come close to 100% accurate.          

This understanding/mastery of the past plus knowledge of more than one language, cultures, geography, probability, data analytics, human behavior and neuroscience are the tools of prediction.  With these tools we can accurately predict the rise and fall of civilizations, the fluctuation of stock values, the climate, the future of race relations and much more but sorry not the winning numbers in lotto nor when or where we will meet that dark, attractive stranger.                                     

As we enter the age of information manipulation it will pay high dividends to not just have information but to also know how to analyze and synthesize it to make intelligent decisions and predictions about our own lives.

Copyright Bert Lorenzo, 2015

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